湖北省春季暴雨落区数值预报模型和指标

Forecasting Indexes and Model of Spring Heavy Rainfall Location Forecasting in Hubei Province

摘要:

数值预报产品已广泛应用于基层台站，但对于其丰富的物理量预报产品的解释应用还不够。文章利用T106物理量预报产品，结合常规气象资料，对1998～2001年湖北省春季暴雨天气过程进行了诊断分析，重点分析了有利于产生暴雨的多个物理要素，发现了产生暴雨的一些物理量及其值的结构特征，包括不同的物理要素场形态的走向、预报值的大小、上下层的配置，加深了对暴雨发生机制的认识，归纳出湖北省春季暴雨落区、落点的预报模型和指标，在促使暴雨预报准确率有所提高的同时，使暴雨预报更加精细化。

Abstract:

The numerical forecast products had been applied in many stations, but the analysis and application of the rich numerical forecast products were not enough. Using the physical forecast products of T106 and the conventional meteorological data, the spring heavy rainfall events in Hubei Province from 1998 to 2001 were diagnosed and analyzed, focused on the physical factor diagnoses. The results revealed the characteristics of some physical factors and their structure, including the shape, forecast value, hierarchical configuration of various physical factors, which help understand the formation mechanisms of heavy rainfall, work out forecasting indices and the model of spring heavy rainfall location forecasting in Hubei Province, and provide references for finer heavy rain forecasting in the future.