WAFS产品中GRIB资料中国区产品评估

Assessment of GRIB Data in China in WAFS Products

摘要:

为了给使用WAFS产品的用户提供量化参考依据，选取WAFS产品中常用区域和层次的GRIB数据，利用由国家气象中心提供的风、温客观分析网格点资料，与WAFS中同时刻的预报场产品（风、温网格点资料），用均方根误差进行数字化形式分析比较。结果表明：WAFS提供的风、温预报，通常是短时效的风、温预报比长时效的风、温预报更接近客观分析场；低层的预报比高层的预报更接近客观分析场；风的预报以v矢量的预报优于u矢量的预报；风的误差主要来源于u矢量的误差。

Abstract:

In order to provide quantitative reference for WAFS's users, selecting the GRIB data in the areas and levels in common use in WAFS products, the numerical analysis and comparison were made of the objective analysis of wind and temperature from the National Meteorological Center and the forecast results of the WAFS (wind, temperature) at the same time in the form of the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The WAFS wind and temperature predictions are usually short-term predictions, which are closer to the objective analysis fields than long-term wind and temperature predictions. The forecasts for low levels are closer to the objective analysis fields than the forecasts for higher levels. In additional, v vector forecast with is superior to u vector, and most of the wind errors come from u vector.