基于AHP-熵权法的重载铁路典型段大风灾害风险评估

Risk Assessment Gale Disaster along Typical Sections of Heavy-Haul Railway Based on AHP and Entropy Weight Method

摘要:

大风是影响重载铁路运输安全的主要气象灾害之一，开展大风灾害风险评估对铁路部门防灾减灾有一定的指导意义。本文以朔黄铁路为研究对象，首先通过致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力4个准则层以及不同等级大风报警频次、强横风频次、海拔高度、地形、股道数量、列车对数、车站级别、线路允许速度、桥梁、隧道、是否有防风墙、大风预警能力、抢险人数、应急救援设备物资17个指标层构建了重载铁路典型段大风灾害风险评估体系，然后利用AHP-熵权法确定各指标层和准则层的权重，最后得到重载铁路典型段大风灾害综合风险区划。结果表明：神池南—宁武西、黄骅南—黄骅港、北港—大港、神港段为高风险路段；龙宫—滴流磴、黄骅东—羊三木为次高风险路段；猴刎—三汲、行唐—曲阳、定州西—定州东、安国—博野、蠡县—李天木、窦庄子—郭庄子为中风险路段。可见西部山地、丘陵地区和东部沿海地区铁路路段大风灾害综合风险等级最高。

Abstract:

Gale is one of the main meteorological disasters affecting the safety of heavy haul railway transportation. Therefore, carrying out a risk assessment of gale disasters has certain guiding significance for preventing disasters and reducing damages in railway departments. This paper takes Shuozhou-Huanghua railway as a typical section of the heavy haul railway. First, the risk assessment system of gale disasters in typical sections along the heavy haul railways is constructed based on the four criteria levels such as the disaster-inducing factors of gale, environmental sensitivity of gale disasters, vulnerability of gale disaster-bearing bodies, and the capability of disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as the 17 indicator layers such as the number of blue level alarms for gale, the number of yellow level alarms for gale, the number of orange level alarms for gale, the number of red level alarms for gale, frequency of strong crosswind, altitude, terrain, the number of tracks, the number of trains, station level, allowable speed of lines, bridges, tunnels, presence of wind barriers, strong wind warning capabilities, the number of emergency personnel, and emergency rescue equipment and materials. Then, the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method are used to determine the weight coefficients of the above four criteria levels and the above 17 indicator layers of emergency, and finally, the comprehensive risk zoning of wind disasters in typical sections of heavy-duty railways is obtained. The results show that the railway sections from Shenchi South station to Ningwu West station, from Huanghua South station to Huanghua Port station, from Beigang station to Dagang station, and Shengang station are the highest risk sections of gale disasters along the Shuozhou-Huanghua railway. The railway sections from Longgong station to Diliudeng station, and from Huanghua East station to Yangsanmu station are the second highest risk sections of gale disasters along Shuozhou-Huanghua railway. The railway sections from Houwen station to Sanji station, from Xingtang station to Quyang station, from Dingzhou West station to Dingzhou East station, from Anguo station to Boye station, from Lixian station to Litianmu station, and from Douzhuangzi station to Guozhuangzi station are medium high risk sections of gale disasters along Shuozhou-Huanghua railway. To sum up, it can be seen that the comprehensive risk level of gale disasters along Shuozhou-Huanghua railway sections in the western mountainous, hilly areas and eastern coastal areas is the highest.