1953—2023年登陆和影响厦门台风特征及危险性分析

Analysis on Characteristics and Hazards of Typhoon Landing and Impacting Xiamen from 1953 to 2023

摘要:

利用中国气象局整编的西北太平洋1953—2023年热带气旋最佳路径数据集、厦门站逐日和1980—2023年逐小时及厦门市区域自动站逐小时观测资料，揭示了登陆和影响厦门的台风频数、生成源地、强度变化特点和风雨致灾危险规律。结果表明：①71 a共259个台风登陆和影响厦门，影响时间近8成集中在7—9月；赤道中东太平洋冷海温、副高偏弱偏北有利于台风频数偏多；最大强度以超强台风级居多，不同等级台风频数年际波动和年代际振荡特征显著， 1990年以来影响台风平均生成位置明显向西向北偏移。②直接登陆厦门及漳州、且厦门在台风前进方向右侧时，容易出现严重风雨灾害，单个台风过程降水极值509.5 mm、极大风速极值为60.0 m·s^-1，1614号超强台风“莫兰蒂”综合致灾位列第一；2023年“杜苏芮”和“海葵”台风风雨危险呈现典型空间差异。

Abstract:

Revealing the features and disaster risks of typhoons impacting Xiamen holds significant scientific and practical value for understanding typhoon hazards and improving disaster risk prevention and mitigation. This study utilises the Northwestern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Best Track dataset produced by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), daily ground observation data from the Xiamen Observatory (1953-2023), hourly precipitation data from the Xiamen Observatory (1980-2023), and hourly data from automatic weather stations across Xiamen (2016-2023). The analysis focuses on the characteristics of typhoon frequency, impact duration, intensity, genesis location, interannual variation, wind and precipitation patterns, and the hazard risks associated with typhoons that make landfall in or affect Xiamen over the past 71 years. The results indicate that Xiamen experiences a total of 259 typhoons over 71 years. The greafest annual occrurence freguency of 9 typhoons occurs in 1961 and 1978, with active typhoon activity during the 1970s to 1990s. Typhoons affect Xiamen from April to December, with nearly 80% occurring between July and September, peaking in August. The frequency of typhoons impacting Xiamen is influenced by multiple factors, including the spatial configuration of sea surface temperature anomalies, variations in the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the patterns of the Western Pacific Subtropical High. Typhoons are less frequent during ENSO developing years and more frequent during ENSO decay years and weak in La Nia years. Nearly 30% of typhoons impacting Xiamen reach super typhoon intensity, showing significant increasing variability since the 1990s. The genesis of typhoons affecting Xiamen is concentrated in the Philippine Sea and the northeastern South China Sea. Notably, the annual average genesis location of typhoons since the 1990s exhibits a significant westward and northward migration. Among 44 typhoons that cause over 100 mm of rainfall in 24 hours, 31 are typhoons that make landfall in Xiamen or follow a southern trajectory, with the extreme precipitation of 509.5 mm caused by Typhoon Tasha (No. 9009). The four direct landfall typhoons bring wind speeds exceeding 41.5 m·s^-1, whereas typhoons passing through Taiwan before affecting Xiamen result in weaker wind speeds below 32.7 m·s^-1 in contrast. The maximum wind speed reaching 60.0 m·s^-1 is recorded during Typhoon Iris (No. 5908). Different typhoons exhibit significant variations in wind, rain, and comprehensive hazard indices. Super Typhoon Meranti (No. 1614) ranks the highest in comprehensive risk. Typhoon Doksuri (No. 2305) and Typhoon Haikui (No. 2311) also cause severe disasters. Doksuri poses high wind and rain risks, while Haikui primarily presents a high rain risk, characterised by a typical non-uniform spatial distribution. These findings provide a scientific basis for enhancing Xiamen’s resilience to extreme weather and climate-related disasters, as well as for informing urban planning, production activities, and ensuring public safety.