河北省夏季气温变化的城市化影响

Urbanisation Effect on Change of Summer Temperature in Hebei Province

摘要:

利用1961—2023年河北省72个国家地面气象观测站夏季逐日平均、最高和最低气温资料，对比分析了河北省不同时段及不同城市化水平地区平均、最高和最低气温及气温日较差的分布特征。结果表明：相较于前30年（1961—1990年），后30年（1994—2023年）河北省夏季平均、最高和最低气温的概率密度分布均向高温方向偏移，其中最低气温的偏移尤其明显；1961—2023年，利用站点对比得出的气温城市化贡献率多超过30%，且后30年河北省夏季气温变化趋势增幅及范围均有所加大，较强温升区域多集中在廊坊、唐山及河北中南部等城市化水平相对较高的地区，日较差减少趋势在河北中南部有所减缓。不同程度的城市化发展对站点气温分布特征的影响有所差异，城市化水平较高和中等城市化水平地区选定城市站点增温幅度较郊区站明显偏大，且城市站气温，尤其是最低气温的概率分布向高温的偏移较郊区站点更为明显，使得日较差减小；城市化水平较低地区城市站与郊区站，最高气温的增幅及概率密度分布向高温方向的偏移有所加大，使得日较差增大。

Abstract:

Based on the summer daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature data from 72 national surface meteorological stations in Hebei Province from 1961 to 2023, a comparative analysis examines the distribution characteristics of summer mean temperature, summer mean maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as the diurnal temperature range, across the time periods and regions with different levels of urbanisation to explore the potential impact of urbanisation on summer temperature changes in Hebei Province. The results indicate that: compared to the previous 30 years (from 1961 to 1990), the probability density distribution of summer mean temperature, summer mean maximum and minimum temperatures in Hebei shifts towards the higher temperature side in the latter 30 years (from 1994 to 2023), which is particularly pronounced in the summer mean minimum temperature. From 1961 to 2023, the contribution rate of urbanisation to temperature mostly exceeds 30%, according to station comparisons in regions with different levels of urbanisation. Additionally, the trend of summer temperature changes in Hebei Province significantly intensifies in both the rate and the scope in the latter 30 years, while the areas with relatively strong temperature increases are primarily concentrated in Langfang, Tangshan, and central and southern Hebei, which are regions that are economically developed and highly urbanised. The decreasing trend of the diurnal temperature range is alleviated in the central and southern parts of Hebei Province. The levels of urbanisation affect the distribution characteristics of site temperatures, while in areas with higher and medium levels of urbanisation, the increase in temperature at selected urban station sites is significantly greater compared to suburban stations. Furthermore, the warming is mostly concentrated near cities, and the probability distribution of temperature elements at urban stations, especially the summer mean minimum temperature, shifts more evidently towards higher temperatures compared to suburban stations, with the steepness increasing, resulting in a shift of the diurnal temperature range towards lower temperatures. In areas with relatively lower levels of urbanisation, the increase and the shift of probability density distribution towards higher temperatures at urban stations compared to suburban stations become more pronounced in summer mean maximum temperature, resulting in an increase in the diurnal temperature range.