1982—2022年新疆昌吉州冬季降雪气候特征

Climate Characteristics of Winter Snowfall in Xinjiang Changji Prefecture from 1982 to 2022

摘要:

基于新疆昌吉州10个国家站1982—2022年冬季逐日降雪观测资料，运用线性倾向估计、Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Arcgis反距离权重插值等方法，分析了昌吉州冬季降雪量、降雪日数、降雪强度的气候学特征，揭示出一些较有意义的事实，结果表明：冬季降雪变化存在显著的区域差异，平原区和北塔山区降雪量显著增加，速率分别为2.6 mm/10a和2.8 mm/10a，而天池与蔡家湖趋势不显著，降雪增多的主导月份不同，平原区主要贡献来自12月，北塔山则来自2月；各区域降雪日数的减少一致由小雪日数显著减少所致，其中天池及平原区大雪日数显著增多，冬季降雪强度显著增强，表明降雪过程向强降雪事件发展；地形是影响降雪分布的关键因子，降雪量与大雪日数均呈现山区（天池）高、绿洲-平原次之、沙漠（蔡家湖）与干旱山地（北塔山）最低的格局。本研究揭示了新疆昌吉州冬季降雪在暖湿化背景下的“量增、日减、强度增”的变化特征，对区域水资源评估与雪灾防范具有参考意义。

Abstract:

The study of winter snowfall holds great significance for Changji Prefecture, located in the northwestern arid region. Abnormal winter snowfall frequently leads to heavy snowfall, which results in snow disasters and avalanches. Furthermore, blizzards and strong winds often cause snowdrifts that block traffic and severely reduce visibility. Therefore, it is essential to conduct investigations in this area. A notable example occurred in December 2015, when Changji Prefecture experienced an extremely rare blizzard characterised by widespread snowfall and a high number of stations reporting heavy snow, with many stations breaking historical records. Therefore, systematic research on winter snowfall is necessary. This study focuses on the Changji area. Based on daily precipitation records from 10 national meteorological stations between 1982 and 2022, the characteristics of snowfall amount, snowfall intensity, and the number of snowfall days are analysed using methods such as linear regression, the Mann-Kendall test, and wavelet analysis. The results show that, based on the winter daily snowfall observation data from 10 national stations in Changji Prefecture from 1982 to 2022, this study analyses the climatological characteristics of winter snowfall amount, snowfall days, and snowfall intensity using methods such as linear trend estimation, Morlet wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test, and ArcGIS inverse distance weighting interpolation. The results reveal several noteworthy findings: (1) Significant regional differences exist in winter snowfall changes. The snowfall amount shows a significant increasing trend in the plain area and the Beitashan region, with rates of 2.6 mm/10a and 2.8 mm/10a, respectively, while the trends in the Tianchi and Caijiahu regions are not significant. The dominant months contributing to the increase differ, with December being the primary contributor in the plain area and February in the Beitashan region. (2) The reduction in snowfall days across various regions is consistently attributed to a significant decrease in light snowfall days. Concurrently, the number of heavy snowfall days increases significantly in the plain and Tianchi areas, and the winter snowfall intensity enhances significantly, indicating a trend towards more intense snowfall events. (3) Topography is a key factor influencing snowfall distribution, with both snowfall amount and heavy snowfall days exhibiting a spatial pattern of high values in mountainous areas (Tianchi), medium values in oasis-plain areas, and low values in desert (Caijiahu) and arid mountainous (Beitashan) areas. This study reveals the characteristics of “increasing amount, decreasing days, and increasing intensity” of winter snowfall in Changji Prefecture against a warming and wetting background, providing references for regional water resource assessment and snow disaster prevention.